This site is generated by a personal research pipeline. Its claims are designed to
be checkable, not persuasive.
Prediction scoring
Predictions are logged with an explicit probability and a
resolve-by date before the outcome is knowable, and scored with the
Brier score: (probability − outcome)². 0 is perfect; 0.25 is a coin flip.
Ambiguous resolutions are excluded from scoring and marked as such.
Resolution criteria: a prediction resolves true only if the
stated event occurs by the resolve-by date per a primary source (SEC filing, FDA
action, company release). Otherwise false. Sources are recorded at
resolution.
Track record to date: 0 resolved calls · mean
Brier — · directional hit rate — · logging
since 2026-07-05.
Tamper evidence
Every prediction and resolution is appended to a SHA-256 hash
chain at write time. Editing any historical entry breaks every hash after it.
The full chain is published at api/ledger.json and can
be re-verified in your browser on the verify page —
no trust in this site required.
Data sources
SEC EDGAR (filings, XBRL company facts), ClinicalTrials.gov,
FDA.gov, the Federal Register, and exchange price data. Fundamentals are
de-cumulated from as-filed XBRL; no third-party estimates are redistributed.
Positions & conflicts
The author may hold long or short positions in any security
discussed and trades around them. Public posts disclose held tickers inline.
Nothing here is investment advice or an offer of advisory services.